Specifically, Freddie Mac has said it is exploring the possibility of raising as much as $10 billion of new capital through one or more stock offerings. On Friday it formally registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as part of the process. Other measures Freddie Mac said it was considering including limiting growth in its portfolio, reducing the size of its portfolio, and/or lowering its quarterly dividend.
Meanwhile, the Treasury Department continues to work with Congress to hammer out details of the plan that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson put forth last week in which the government would purchase equity stakes and extend loans, if necessary, to Fannie and Freddie . Incorporated into a larger housing bill in the House, that chamber is scheduled to vote on the measure no later than Wednesday. The Senate also expects to consider it this week as well.
There is still some opposition – or at least demands by Congress for greater accountability – to the plan. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass) for example, has said he wants to link the plan to the federal debt limit, essentially capping the amount of capital that would be available to the GSEs. But the many of lawmakers, based on public comments, appear to have little stomach to watch the GSEs flounder during an election year. Officials who might otherwise block such a bailout, such as Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) have voiced cautious statements that something will be passed.
This duel-track relief plan – and more venues may well be in the offing – is a relief to the real estate community, at least in the immediate term. "If they are successful at raising the stock, it would go a long way to alleviating concerns Congress and regulators have about the GSEs now," Real Estate Roundtable VP Clifton E. "Chip" Rodgers Jr. observes. The two plans, he tells GlobeSt.com, are complementary and will go far in stabilizing in the agencies.
However, a longer-term prognosis for the GSEs is less clear, especially as the issue of moral hazard -- and its uneven application between bondholder and shareholders, some might say -- begins to sink in among investors. Paulson's plan gives current shareholders in the GSEs the cold shoulder, Peter Cohan, principal with Peter S. Cohan & Assoc., tells GlobeSt.com. New – or for the brave, existing – stockholders, of course, now must be cajoled into buying the new stock if Freddie Mac opts for that route now and in the future. "My concern is that investors might balk at buying shares in Freddie, unless they are given assurances that the government will bail out equity holders as well as debt holders," Cohan says.
Frederic Ruffy, the senior options strategist at WhatsTrading.com, a New York City-based provider of options market analysis, tells GlobeSt.com that the Street seems to prefer this alternative to the strings that would no doubt accompany any Congressional financing. "Faced with billions of dollar is losses, Freddie is in need of fresh capital to avoid stricter regulation from the government," he says. "Closer government scrutiny would surely accompany a bailout or rescue. In other words, in order to avoid stricter government oversight, Freddie would rather raise capital from investors rather than Treasury Department. Consequently, the thought of a stock offering, although it would dilute future earnings for current shareholders, seems to be well received by investors."
That said, he continues, it is impossible for investors to ignore the billions of dollars in losses the company still faces. "The risk is considered high and therefore investors would demand a high rate in return from Freddie shares, which would make an offering a very expensive proposition in the current environment."
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