Poor Jobs Numbers

Obviously today’s poor employment numbers foreshadow more bad news for the economy and real estate. Months of steady jobs erosion inexorably lead to reduced demand for office, deeper consumer gloom and reduced shopping center sales, less goods shipped through warehouses and distribution centers, slackening travel and hotel bookings, and more problems for the housing market — fewer people can afford homes even at lowered pricing.  Separate from the crisis in financial institutions, until we see jobs and wage growth again, the real estate markets will continue to deteriorate. The one-two punch of gridlocked lending and a stuck-in-the-rut economy set the stage for a very difficult 12-18 months, highlighted by value declines and reduced net operating incomes.  Borrowers eating into reserves have more reason to despair. Bankers balance sheets show more red ink. And buyers find more resolve in waiting for what may be a deeper cyclical bottom. The stock market continues to take its lumps. Anyone still think commercial real estate can escape a correction?

I found the Republican Convention fascinating as always. Up until Senator McCain’s acceptance speech all the speakers were pounding on “liberals” and “elites.” Sen. McCain then takes the stage and claims he wants to bring everyone together for the good of the country. “It doesn’t matter who gets the credit,”  he said. Now we know his political team either wrote or cleared all the  earlier speeches, which were laced with similar hyperbolic rhetoric, the very same applause lines that Mr. McCain later decried as “poisonous.” Also for all the talk about Sen. Obama’s lack of executive experience, nobody, including Gov. Palin, seems to be mentioning that McCain has absolutely none either.