Well, no wonder those four star Manhattan restaurants were so empty last week. Hold the Krystal, this week promises to be even worse... On the other hand, corner bars may be doing much better at least selling their cheapest brews.
What's pretty clear about the extreme uncertainty roiling the entire financial industry is no bank or institution will be in a position to resume more "normal" lending for months, maybe many months or several years. And the new "normal" will come with all sorts of strings attached to reduce banker risk and increase borrowers' costs. But that won't be for a while. In the meantime, the listing economy must absorb several other jolts -- failed iconic firms, more major Wall Street jobs losses, and evaporating wealth in stock portfolios. In addition, who knows how much more unexposed debt exists, including most notably in commercial real estate? No doubt plenty.
On-the-edge borrowers may get another reprieve as bankers stand paralyzed like deer-in-the-headlights. It feels like It's time to stuff all your remaining money underneath your mattress. The day of reckoning for taking losses in commercial real estate is coming nevertheless. Unfortunately, the depth of the Wall Street crisis probably ensures larger real estate declines as the economy registers further damage. Without debt to grease their gears, many businesses head towards limbo. Developers might as well go into the fetal position. The Manhattan office market alone faces losing several million square feet from Lehman's demise, likely Merrill Lynch downsizing, and AIG shrinkage. The local condo/coop market officially hits the skids.
Incredibly, Fannie, Freddie, Bear, Lehman, Merrill Lynch all lie suddenly in the ashheap. Wall Street will never look the same. And probably more to come.
Can I sell you a CDO? And you think the CMBS markets will bounce back any time soon?
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
