(Crystal Proenza is associate editor of Real Estate Florida.)
MIAMI-The financial and residential real estate crisis will continue to affect South Florida commercial properties, according to speakers at today's RealShare South Florida conference at the Hyatt Regency Downtown. Panels assembled at the event spoke to almost 300 attendees about the state of the tri-county market, getting deals done, the financial crisis, the benefits of going green and the outlook for the commercial market.
According to the speakers, the downturn in the South Florida market has not seen its darkest day in terms of residential prices dropping and effects on office, industrial and retail. Keynote speaker Mark Vitner, managing director and senior economist with Wachovia Corp., identified the roots of the financial crisis as complacency with asset quality and risk, plus a lack of accountability throughout the lending system.
Vitner named the continuing housing slump as the major cause of the downturn in Florida, adding that the worst is yet to be seen. This state has suffered more than many markets throughout the country because it had the biggest concentration of investment buyers for residential units, he said.
"We got here from rampant overbuilding, rampant speculation and giving loans to anyone who could fog a mirror, that had a heartbeat," said panelist Jack McCabe, CEO and managing partner of McCabe Research & Consulting LLC. The full effects of the climbing financial bankruptcy filings on the South Florida residential market remain to be seen.
"We're at least half the way through the correction in home prices; maybe as much as two-thirds," said Vitner. "It will bottom out in the middle of 2009 the earliest, the middle of 2010 the latest. I don't think we're going to get to a real strong economy again until 2011."
One positive point for commercial properties that has come out of the real estate crisis, said Vitner, is that many projects have stopped dead in the pipeline, allowing value and rents to hold up and vacancy stay healthy. However, as result of the continued crisis, retail will be the next sector to see softness, followed by industrial and suburban office, said Gene Berman, senior vice president/managing director with Marcus & Millichap. Yet all is not gloomy, the real estate veterans on the panels assured.
"There are Main-and-Main deals getting done," said Berman. "There are plenty of dollars both in terms of equity and debt for the right deal. It's the secondary and tertiary areas that are going to be difficult to finance." The availability of financing, great sponsorship and reasonable loan to values are what completed deals depend on, said Christian Lee, vice chairman with the institutional group of CB Richard Ellis.
Newly formed acquisition funds, which seem to be popping up every day, are starting to complete transactions and will for the next few years, said McCabe. However, vulture funds are not going to get the yields they think they will, added Berman. "When the bottom is seen, the demand will unleash the true equity dollars that are out there," he said.
Attendees were curious about whether commercial mortgage-backed securities will return, and speakers agreed that the CMBS market is currently dormant and will be for a while. "We have to get past the fear that's in the market right now," said Vitner. "It's a significant hurdle to overcome. I think almost every company, except those sitting on boat loads of cash, are just going to play defense right now."
Ford Gibson, principal of Gibson Development Partners, says he has seen the market in a downturn before and that the current crisis is just part of the ever-turning real estate cycle. "I would hope, and do believe, we will start seeing things more positive toward the end of 2009 and in mid-2010 the market should be getting back on firmer ground. We're at the stage where we can start looking for opportunities that will be delivered in that 2010-to-2011 timeframe. Traditionally the guy that comes out of the ground that delivers in that time period is the one that will make the money," he said.
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