At least, that's the word from the front lines at the third annual RealShare Phoenix, part of the RealShare Conference Series hosted by Real Estate Media, a division of Incisive Media. Nearly 150 participants, attending the half-day session at the Camelback Inn in Scottsdale, got first-hand validation of their perceptions about the market. They also learned some of the reasons behind the slowdown and the best way to tough it out for the duration of the slump.

Christopher E. Toci, executive director for Cushman & Wakefield of Arizona Inc., said the Phoenix real estate cycle has tracked with the national economy since the early 1970s. He also pointed out that the area has had only one year of negative job growth for the past 30 years--at least until now.

"We're projecting a 25,000 to 50,000 negative job loss this year," Toci said. "That would mark the second consecutive year in which Phoenix lost jobs. That's the first time it's happened."