"The forecast is based on a number of factors, most significantly economic growth in diverse areas of the world," says Jim Edgar, Boeing's regional director, cargo marketing for Asia. "Over the long-term, global economic growth will drive demand for new, high-value products as well as seasonal perishables that people have become accustomed to enjoying."
According to the report, the nature of the air freighter fleet will also change, with bigger aircraft claiming a higher proportion of the market. Whereas the largest freighters currently account for a 26% share of the market, in 20 years they will make up 35%. The fleet additions will include 863 new production freighters, of which 641 will be wide-body vessels with a capacity of more than 80 tons. Boeing says demand for new production equipment is driven by operational efficiency and reliability, as well as environmental and regulatory pressures, including noise, emissions and aging.
"We expect several trends to continue," says Edgar. "Dedicated freighters will continue to provide an increasing proportion of air cargo capacity, going to nearly 54%, and the industry will continue to move to larger airplanes." In addition, he estimates that freighters will continue to comprise about 10% of the world jetliner fleet during the forecast period.
The report says the share of standard-body freighters (defined as less than 45 tons capacity with single-aisle body width) will decrease from 39% to 35% over the next two decades. In each of the past three years, Boeing has booked record numbers of new production freighter orders, a total of 236 airplanes, dominated by the company's new 777F and 747-8F models, as well as 56 orders for Boeing converted freighter models. According to Boeing, its freighters currently provide more than 90% of the world's freighter capacity.
Despite the bold projections, Boeing acknowledges increased fuel prices will have a significant impact on aircraft use in general and the freighter sector in particular. But it claims the primary change will be a shift to more fuel efficient aircraft rather than reduced use of air freight. In addition, the company says aircraft will continue to fulfill a demand for freight transport in land-locked areas with inadequate road and rail infrastructure. It predicts additional economies will be achieved by converting excess passenger planes into freighters. Though this won't result in lower fuel costs, Boeing notes it will require less capital investment.
The Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2008/2009, a more detailed study, will be issued at the 2008 International Air Cargo Forum and Exposition in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in November.
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