According to Containerisation International, the precipitous decline follows five years of historically high deliveries. Clarkson reports only 179 container ships contracted through August, a 49% decrease from the 355 ships put in contract for the same period a year ago. At the current rate, the year's total would reach only 270 ships, compared to 530 in 2207, 479 in '06 and a record 566 in '05. The report says the industry has been experiencing a steep falloff in orders since Q4 '07, with a single upward spike in June when Maersk posted an order for 70 new vessels.

Clarkson attributes the decline to what it calls "a good old double whammy" of slowing trade volumes and rising shipyard prices. On an annualized basis, global container trade growth this year has dropped below the double-digit level for the first time since '01, leading to an approximately 20% slide in ocean freight rates and ship charter rates. Containerisation International says a 3,500-TEU gearless Panamax vessel earns $26,000 a day on charter, down from $29,500 a day in June and $38,000 a day in '06.

The drop in ocean freight volumes is particularly evident in North America. Panama Canal volume is expected to show no growth this year, with the total projected volume of 312 million tons essentially matching last year's number. The plateau follows nine straight years of growth. Though Panama Canal Authority chief executive Alberto Aleman says growth may resume in 2009, outside analysts are less optimistic.