Experts: Retail Turns 'Darwinian'

These are excerpts from a roundtable discussion sponsored by Incisive Media and Sperry Van Ness. The full text will appear in the November issue of Real Estate New York magazine.

NEW YORK CITY-A combination of tight credit and consumers’ increasing reluctance to open their wallets will make the next 12 to 18 months tough sledding for the retail sector, a panel of experts warned on Monday evening. However, there will be bright spots for operators who are positioned to weather the “turbulent times” cited by moderator Joseph French, national director of retail properties at Sperry Van Ness.

“We’re entering something of a Darwinian period for retail,” said Joshua Podell, vice president of real estate at Jones Apparel Group. He predicted a “very rough” 12 months ahead for retail in general, as did Patrick Breslin, president of the Eastern retail group for Grubb & Ellis. The assessment by Stephen Ifshin, chairman and co-founder of DLC Management Corp., was along similar lines: “Only the strong will survive.” Further shakeout among retailers is ahead of us, he said, and Breslin said this holiday selling season will be make-or-break time for many marginally-performing stores.