Greg Schecher on Last Week's Poll

Last week’s GlobeSt.com Quick Poll asked readers if the credit crisis has ended yet. A total of 65% of voters responded that we are in no way out of the worst or near the bottom. Greg Schecher, managing director of Johnson Capital in Boca Raton, tells GlobeSt.com about the challenges facing the credit market in Florida, and what needs to happen before we see a recovery:

“Whether or not the credit freeze thaws sooner or later depends upon quite a few key variables that are not readily discernable as of yet. Billions of dollars of assets, mostly mortgage loans, are slated to be sold by TARP at prices that will be determined by auctions that will occur over an indeterminable period of time. The abundant volume of investment supply could create downward pressure on all real estate and mortgage asset values. A prolonged sale process or the fire sale purchase of TARP assets could serve to damage the prospects of a speedy recovery of the commercial real estate markets.

“The wild card for the recovery of Florida commercial real estate is the volume of commercial tenant lease defaults. Should retailers enjoy strong sales this holiday season, the lower-leveraged retail businesses will use cash flow to supplement borrowing as the general recession eases and credit becomes available. Poor holiday sales coupled with the lack of credit will exacerbate the plight of the higher leveraged retailers who are blocked from borrowing. This could result in higher vacancies in 2009 and lower asset values thereafter.