The forecast of a five-to-seven-year drought came from Cushman & Wakefield EVP Augustus B. Field IV, who based his prediction on both a historic precedent and the global nature of the current economic downturn. That precedent was the slump in leasing that set in after the October 1987 stock market crash, from which the New York market didn't fully recover until 1995, Field said.

At the other end of the time spectrum, Glen J. Weiss, SVP at Vornado Realty Trust, predicted that "we'll start getting back to life sometime in 2010," while Studley EVP David Goldstein and Durst Organization SVP Thomas Bow both foresaw a downturn lasting two to three years. Goldstein observed that the price of oil is dropping and consumer credit has loosened somewhat, but added, "this will take time to work through." Meanwhile, he said, the current economic picture is continuing to deterioriate.

The four leasing experts--convened for a REBNY "Commercial Crossfire" panel at the board's Mendik Education Center--did agree on a number of things. One was that while each had experienced his share of cycles, the current one was unprecedented in the unbroken series of financial upheavals that lay behind it. "I don't remember ever being hit in the head so many times," commented moderator Frederick Marek, president of the Vortex Group. Another concurrence was that credit will remain tight as lenders cast a warier eye on potential deals. "It goes without saying that you're going to see a great deal of additional scrutiny," said Goldstein.