Search
 

Leasing Panel: No Quick Recovery

NEW YORK CITY-Manhattan's office market could slow for anywhere from two to seven years, although its fundamentals are in better shape than in past downturns

By Paul Bubny | Updated on October 24, 2008

NEW YORK CITY-Don’t expect the office leasing market to get back to normal in the immediate future. At a Real Estate Board of New York panel discussion Thursday evening, predictions on how long the downturn will last ranged from 2010 to 2015.

The forecast of a five-to-seven-year drought came from Cushman & Wakefield EVP Augustus B. Field IV, who based his prediction on both a historic precedent and the global nature of the current economic downturn. That precedent was the slump in leasing that set in after the October 1987 stock market crash, from which the New York market didn’t fully recover until 1995, Field said.

At the other end of the time spectrum, Glen J. Weiss, SVP at Vornado Realty Trust, predicted that “we’ll start getting back to life sometime in 2010,” while Studley EVP David Goldstein and Durst Organization SVP Thomas Bow both foresaw a downturn lasting two to three years. Goldstein observed that the price of oil is dropping and consumer credit has loosened somewhat, but added, “this will take time to work through.” Meanwhile, he said, the current economic picture is continuing to deterioriate.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Unlimited access to GlobeSt and other free ALM publications
  • Access to 15 years of GlobeSt archives
  • Your choice of GlobeSt digital newsletters and over 70 others from popular sister publications
  • 1 free article* every 30 days across the ALM subscription network
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM events and publications

*May exclude premium content
Already have an account?

NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

GlobeSt

Join GlobeSt

Don't miss crucial news and insights you need to make informed commercial real estate decisions. Join GlobeSt.com now!

  • Free unlimited access to GlobeSt.com's trusted and independent team of experts who provide commercial real estate owners, investors, developers, brokers and finance professionals with comprehensive coverage, analysis and best practices necessary to innovate and build business.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and GlobeSt events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including ThinkAdvisor.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join GlobeSt

Copyright © 2024 ALM Global, LLC. All Rights Reserved.