Experts: Pain on Horizon, More for the US

TORONTO-While commercial real estate markets around the globe are looking at a dozen or so painful next quarters, the US will likely be hit the worst, according to CRE experts. Even though US markets are still steady, the impact of the consumer-led slowdown and financial credit crunch will hit in the next few months, and could even last four to five years, say experts such as Colliers International US operations president Rick Chichester and locally based Avison Young CEO Mark Rose, the former CEO for Grubb & Ellis.

The rest of the world’s markets should follow in a slowdown, but many believe Europe, Canada, Australia and the Middle East will see less of an impact, and Asia may not suffer much at all, say experts, including Cushman & Wakefield CEO, Asia Pacific, Michael Thompson.

It’s true that whenever the US gets a cold, Canada starts sneezing, says Rose, who took some time off after the Grubb & Ellis sale to find a good company and business model. He says he decided the model included a company outside the US, and that he likes Avison Young, positioned to be one of the largest commercial real estate firms in the large country. “Canada is very solid in terms of occupancy and absorption, but it would not be shocking if buildings related to the financial industry had a slowdown,” he tells GlobeSt.com. “But it’s a very different country from the US. There’s a lot of oil money, there’s significantly less consumer debt and interest rates are very low, with a stable banking system.”