Gas prices plummet towards $2.50 a gallon nationally--will we abandon notions of energy independence and wind energy, and climb back into our SUVs? We did that once before back in the early 80s after the Iranian crisis abated and gas lines disappeared. Cheaper gas led to the big sprawl wave--exurban growth, McMansions, more shopping centers and big vehicles to travel to and from them.

But U.S. home-grown oil resources steadily decline from early 1970 peaks (when we were the world's number one oil source)--the reality is more off-shore drilling won't make much of a difference in reversing that trend. And do we want to continue to be at the mercy of events in the Middle East and be compelled to send our military there to safeguard our interests at huge costs? Let's face it we are one terrorist attack on Saudi oil fields away from $5 a gallon gas. Then there is the global warming issue--do we want to keep spewing out tail pipe pollutants with mounting deleterious consequences? And lastly, the reality most of us don't focus on at all is congestion in our metropolitan areas. These places are the nation's primary economic engines and they increasingly have been gridlocking, because their infrastructure systems can't accommodate all the increased traffic from more cars having to travel greater distances to get around between work and home. The slow downs reduce gas mileage and increase pollution, while businesses and people get less efficient--time lost in traffic translates into lowered productivity. Cheap gas aggravates congestion problems--we need to become less car dependant, especially considering expected population growth over the next 30 years. More cars and more vehicle miles traveled aren't the answer even if we find a pollution-free energy source.

And let's not forget the reason for nosediving gas prices--an unprecedented, worldwide economic panic, which has sent international demand for oil into a tailspin. Increasingly volatile energy prices could suddenly increase again when economies improve. And we're back in a price shock mess.

If we're smart we will focus on the energy independence goal--and over the long-term that includes changing where we live and work and how we move around.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.