Whether it's north, south or central Texas, all four top-ranked metros are still adding jobs. And with that, they are still adding apartment units, a Texas way of life that's setting the stage for overbuilding down the road. An estimated 300 brokers, developers and lenders heard the good news and the bad yesterday at the annual industry conference of Carrollton, TX-based M/PF YieldStar Inc.

"No one came in here too optimistic about 2009," Greg Willett, M/PF's vice president, pointed out to the crowd at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Downtown Dallas. In Texas and the rest of the Southwest markets, rents and occupancies are going to drop in 2009, just maybe not as drastically as elsewhere in the US. And if there's any consolation, the conference's experts had one bit of advice: be glad you're not in Phoenix.

By the end of this year, Greater Phoenix's occupancy will be 89%, down from the present 89.6%. Rents will be 4% lower at year's end than they were when it started. In 2009, Willett predicted occupancy will dip to 87.8% and rents will take another 4% hit. Once a US leader in job creation, the metro lost 40,000 jobs to date this year. To add to the brutal reality, there are 11,000 units under construction.