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Panel: Election Effect on RE Will Be Muted

NEW YORK CITY-Experts in retail, residential, hospitality and finance say their sectors are still defining what the new normal is.

By Paul Bubny | Updated on November 05, 2008

NEW YORK CITY-The historic election of Barack Obama as president was still hours away, but a multi-disciplinary panel of experts on Tuesday spoke as though the outcome was already pretty much decided. Responding to a question by moderator Lois Weiss, the panelists suggested that for commercial real estate, the impact of the election itself would be muted.

Ariel Schuster, SVP at Robert K. Futterman & Associates, predicted that any effect on consumer spending would be more evident outside of Manhattan than in the city itself. On the residential side, Terra Holdings’ Gregory Heym said the big question would be whether people would “rush to make decisions” based on the anticipation of higher tax codes. Jeffrey Fastov of Goldman Sachs suggested that if Obama can actually deliver on his promise to shore up the economy, “that’s great,” while hospitality expert Ted Brumleve of Warnick + Co. said he was looking for “some consistency” in the markets. “We need things to calm down.”

Titled “Residential, Retail and Hospitality… Momentum or Meltdown?,” the panel suggested that while the three sectors were far from a meltdown, at least in the New York metro area, neither was there much momentum as the sectors continue adapting to the new, unsettled normal. Fastov, managing director and co-head of commercial real estate lending at Goldman, said there’s a “tremendous amount of introspection” as lenders consider which clients are most beneficial to them and potential buyers are considering how to position themselves for the future. “People are saying, ‘let me see some signs of life and then I’ll come back.’” He later said, “Part of what needs to happen is an equilibrium across the markets before real estate looks attractive again.”

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