George Roddy, president of Carrollton, TX-based Roddy Information Services, is more optimistic than Loughry. Roddy says single-family properties will dip 2% to 3% while commercial values will drop, with property type and location as the basis. "The perception is greater than the fact as far as decreasing values," he contends. "We've not seen any decrease as it relates to commercial properties."

Roddy acknowledges 2009 could be rough in some sectors, specifically suburban cities like DeSoto and Cedar Hill, where a decline is starting to emerge. "They could lose more than 4% to 4%," he says.

Roddy, like Loughry, says retail will be the hardest hit. But, he's also quick to point out there are plenty of investors on the sidelines with capital earmarked for bargains. "When they come in here, pay retail and are glad they bought the property, just think what they'll think if they can come in and get some bargains," he says.

Steve Triolet, CBRE's research manager in Texas and Oklahoma, says property values are being discussed in all camps. "It's pretty safe to say, prices will drop in 2009, but the question is how to quantify it," he says. "I don't think they're going to drop as much as people anticipate."

Like Roddy, Triolet says there are bargain shoppers on the sidelines waiting to make their moves. And like the others, he says retail will be the hardest hit in values.

Because North Texas is still adding jobs and population, Triolet says the drop in values will be far less than other parts of the country. How much depends purely on how long the economic downturn lasts. "If it's longer than late 2009 or 2010, that's when we're going to see more dramatic drops," Triolet says. "We have a lot of momentum right now although it's slowly dissipating. I think if it's only a year, we can ride that out pretty easily."

Chief appraisers in Dallas and Tarrant County say it's too early in the data-gathering process to say if values will stay flat or decline. Neither Dallas' Ken Nolan nor Tarrant's Jeffery Law is expecting their values to climb. "Flat would definitely the point I'd be at right now if I had to guess," Law says.

Nolan says he's not drawing any conclusions right now. "We'll do what the market tells us," he adds. "Things are changing daily. We have no sales transactions so no one seems to know."

The chief appraisers and their teams will set values Jan. 1, with notices going out May 1. Municipal leaders should, if they aren't already doing so, prepare for revenue losses due to changing property values. "The bottom line is that revenue growth will be slower than normal which will require some planning," Perryman cautions.