Last week's GlobeSt.com Quick Poll asked readers if it's the right time to buy. A total of 62% of voters responded with yes, while another 25% gave a resounding no and 14% said the question was stupid. Kevin Welsh, senior vice president of CB Richard Ellis in Saddle Brook, talks to GlobeSt.com about the pros and cons of purchasing New Jersey property.
"I think that now can be the right time to buy. If you're looking at it from an opportunistic standpoint, you could say that there are currently opportunities, but then the question is: will there be better options six months from now? That's the conundrum.
"The challenge you have today is financing any transaction, so you could say, yes, it's a good time to buy, but how do I finance the deal. There are players who have plenty of cash, but I don't think the market has gotten to the point where it's capitulated. It hasn't gotten to a point where there's a floor, so people have a sense that if they buy now, then the market's going to start moving up. It's difficult to say when we'll reach the bottom. As long as we continue to have the current level of capital market illiquidity, I think the value issue will be tricky. I also really think the illiquidity is more on the debt side than the equity side, so until the credit markets loosen, some people may not be confident about buying.
"That said, I think it's the right time to buy certain deals--you probably won't find any in the trophy category because there are no deals trading, but I think when you go sub-$25 million and when you are looking at a deal with in-place debt, then it might be the right time to buy because that deal may be accretive.
"If there's one space where perhaps you push the envelope a little and take a chance, it's multifamily. No one is insulated, but I do like multifamily long-term. It may be cheaper six months out, but you may not be able to get it then. Retail and office are very challenging at the moment. I don't see many people buying the latter unless it's trophy quality and there is strong credit quality among tenants. I'd say that industrial falls somewhere in the middle. People will probably sit on the sidelines with industrial unless the deal is so sweet that they must act immediately."
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