Real Estate Southern California RESOCAL
What the experts came up with runs the gamut, and of course, many of our resident gurus try to tackle what's arguably the biggest question that looms on the horizon: When do we hit bottom?
Jack Kyser, chief economist, Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.
1) A challenge for the real estate industry is that a lot of younger people will leave the industry. This could cause a shortage of talent a few years out.
2) Don't forget the hotel industry. A lot of capacity is coming on line, and the outlook for 2009 is quite guarded. There has been a proliferation of hotel brands. And establishing them in a down market is going to be difficult.
 Hessam Nadji |
Hessam Nadji, managing director of research services, Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services
1) Investment sales will start to pick up after the first quarter of 2009 as buyers and sellers begin to redefine pricing. Financing should begin to ease by mid-year, leaving it far from generally easy to "available," barring any more shocks and additional government rescue blunders—a tall order on the assumptions side of the equation.
2) This is not the great depression, the end of capitalism or free markets but get ready for over-regulation, at least for a while. Cycles are made of over-reaction on the way up and over-reaction on the way down and we are now in the midst of the ultra state of fear that comes with a major economic crisis, but will not last forever. This cycle will create tremendous buying opportunities, even more so than would have been logically expected just a few months ago before the downturn escalated into a full scale financial crisis. But buyers should not expect all properties to be discounted the same across-the-board—quality will once again matter and the spread between "A" and "B" assets and primary versus secondary, versus tertiary markets, which was temporarily compressed, is widening and here to stay as well it should.
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