When looking at economic cycles, Egan noted the acronym "VUL." As he explained it, normal downturn would be more like the letter "V," where conditions deteriorate, hit a bottom, and then improve. "A more lengthy, agonizing and debilitating recession acts more like a 'U,' " he said, where fundamentals worsen, remain at a low for some time and then pick up, such as it did in the 1980s. The current cycle is more like the letter "L," where conditions decline and remain poor for the foreseeable future.
"This would appear to be a situation where the downturn is worse than any of us expected," he related. "No one knows the extent of the problems. Therefore, survival strategies are important."
Even though the government bailout and economic stimulus is expected to help turn the markets around, Egan said, "We've gone way beyond TARP [the Troubled Asset Relief Program]." The federal government, he lamented, is at a point now where they're doling out money casually, for instance, continuously funding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and repeatedly reducing interest rates. The good news, he stated, is that the national leadership is committed to making this downturn as short as possible. "It's unprecedented."
When it comes to housing specifically, Egan said the government's conservatorship of Fannie and Freddie has effectively changed the description of these mortgage giants from GSEs--government-sponsored enterprises--to GOEs--government-owned enterprises. The replacement of the CEOs of both companies is just one example of the changes occurring in the market right now. "I don't think we're ever going to see a return to Fannie and Freddie as we know them," meaning, the structure of a publicly owned organization with investment by private shareholders. "It's not going to come back."
While much of the focus of late has been on the single-family for-sale side, Egan said it would do well to shift some of that attention to multifamily. "We could do a lot" if the government implemented some initiatives on the rental side, including reduced interest rates and increasing the value of low-income housing tax credits.
On the capital markets, Egan predicted there would be considerable changes in the securities market, including consolidation. He is less unsure of the direction of LIHTCs, though there are considerable efforts being made to improve the program. "I don't think they are going to really change things too much," he related, adding that the key lies in the yield expectations for the credits. "Something needs to happen for investors to return to the tax credit market."
A new head of Department of Housing and Urban Development--President-elect Barack Obama recently nominated Shaun Donovan, commissioner of the New York City Department of Housing Preservation and Development, for the position of HUD Secretary--may help, but Egan suggested that the person in the position doesn't matter as much as the organization's actions and market conditions.
"We also have White House support for housing and community development, which represents yet another change," he added. "Still, there will continue to be less flexibility on the lending side, but there will be opportunities in the public housing arena."
Price concurred, noting that the tighter climate means that local groups trying to develop housing are effectively stuck, which opens up some opportunities. "It's clear that a large, wholesale and systematic effort needs to be made in order to stem the tide of foreclosures," she related. That hasn't occurred yet, but "we're starting to get to that point."
The economic stimulus bill, Price noted, has some points that would be beneficial to multifamily, such as a $5-billion allocation for a public housing trust fund, which would provide capital to developers with shovel-ready projects. There have also been some discussions that the new administration would try to help with foreclosures, and some capital has been set aside for green rehabilitation efforts. "That theme [of sustainability] is here to stay, and it's something [affordable housing advocates] should keep in mind" when putting together proposals, she asserted.
Additionally, a large amount of money has been allocated for transit and infrastructure projects. Housing advocates "can ask to tie those monies to affordable housing and community development projects," she said. "We can put a spin on it to put that capital to work as well as help with affordable housing."
It's especially heartening that the preservation of affordable housing and the revamping of the Section 8 housing choice voucher program are high on the new Congress' agenda of issues to address, said Price.
Affordable housing is critical, stated Egan, but it's important to think about the big picture. "We must remember that these issues are very important to us, but so are the policies and strategies of the new administration," he said. The initiatives Obama is proposing--making improvements to energy efficiency, education, infrastructure and the healthcare system--will all help to create jobs. Consequently, he said, affordable housing professionals "need to be involved in these initiatives, specifically the transportation effort; housing needs to be part of that discussion."
Going forward, maintained Egan, "The continued role of the state and local authorities, as well as state housing authorities, will be even more important in the upcoming years." Specifically, he said, "it's time for HUD to take on a leadership position in addressing housing policy.
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