"That indicates a heightening pessimism level," says James J. Bartsch, CFMA's director of research and analysis, who oversees the proprietary construction industry measure of 200 randomly selected CFOs in the commercial construction sector.
The Confidex measure is based on a rating of 100 being "neutral," greater than 100 being "optimistic," and less than 100 being "pessimistic." In June, the survey's rating was 97, and the December number came in at 79, reflecting that 18% drop in confidence. The next survey is scheduled for release in March.
The quarterly reading is made up of eight elements used to calculate a net score: The state of industry conditions now and in the year ahead; availability of bank credit now and in the year ahead; state of total construction backlog now and in the year ahead; availability of bonding credit; and availability of working capital. Four sub-indices include general business conditions, financial conditions, current confidence and projected outlook.
And while confidence is lowest relating to commercial construction, a CFMA economic forecast webinar did point to a few growth categories: Power plants and related construction; energy--refineries, pipelines, terminals; base realignment-related work; and federal infrastructure projects.
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