Answers to how long the down cycle could last, how the commercial real estate market will gradually emerge from it and keys to survival in the meantime were all on the agenda in an hour-long webinar featuring Nadji and three other CRE experts. Titled "The US Economy Part II--What Can We Do to Survive?," the Dec. 17 discussion was moderated by John Salustri, editorial director of Incisive Media's real estate group. Part I of that discussion occurred in July--a pre-meltdown, pre-TARP era in which, as Salustri put it, "there was no real sense of the pain that would follow."

Although the current down cycle--finally acknowledged officially as a recession earlier this month--may seem unprecedented, it does have historical antecedents. Raymond Torto, chief economist for CB Richard Ellis, likened it to the 1957 recession in its sharpness, suddenness and, potentially, its depth. Nadji said he sees elements of that cycle as well as the 1981-82 downturn, although he doesn't think the unemployment rate will reach the heights of either of those recessions. "We're in the worst of it now," he said.

If this is indeed the trough of the recession, a major challenge the CRE market faces in emerging from it is the financing drought. "The securitization mechanism is there, but the market is almost totally shut down," observed Howard Roth, global and Americas real estate leader for Ernst & Young. It's important to note that this paralysis is global, he added. "I think people underestimated how much securitization would bind the world together."