"As retailers face the most challenging holiday season in years, they are being careful with their inventory levels, and that means lower volume at the ports," says Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. "Cargo volume isn't a direct correlation with dollar volume of sales, but it's a good indication of what retailers are thinking."

The report, which does not include exact figures for the most recent month, estimated total November traffic at 1.26 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), a decline of 8.5% from 12 months earlier. In October, the ports surveyed handled 1.36 million TEUs, 2.4% higher than September but 5.4% below October, '07 levels.

The report's forecast calls for 1.22 million TEUs in December, down 5% from the previous year; 1.17 million TEUs for January, off 4.9%; and 1.11 million TEUs in February, down 9%. In March, a 2.5% year-over-increase to 1.19 million TEUs is expected, but April will again see a drop of 1.3% to forecast at 1.25 million TEUs. The report projects volume for '08 will reach only 15.3 million TEUs, down 7.1% compared to the 16.5 million TEUs recorded a year earlier. The figure would be the lowest total since '04.

According to Paris-based container shipping consultant AXS Alphaliner, ocean container carriers have cut capacity on the three main east-west liner trade routes by 6.7% over the past four months. Capacity on routes linking Asia, Europe and North America fell from 916,000 TEUs a week to 855,000 TEUs a week from August through November. The Far East- Europe-Mediterranean trade saw the biggest drop, with weekly capacity down 9%, while capacity shrunk 5.5% on the Far East-North America route and 2.5% on the Europe/Mediterranean-North America route. Meanwhile, AXS says container ship orders have fallen below 6.5 million TEUs for the first time in 13 months.

Many of the world's major shipping lines have cut back service, particularly between Asia and the West. Maersk Line, the world's biggest ocean container carrier, put eight 6,500-TEU ships on hiatus for six months in response to lower volumes and rates. The Copenhagen-based operator says it will idle more vessels if conditions do not improve. According to Maersk chief executive Eivind Kolding, from 10 and 15 medium-sized carriers could be taken out of service due to surplus capacity."In view of market conditions, we have reached the point where laying up the eight vessels makes better economical sense than redeploying them," says Michel Deleuran, Maersk director of network and product. "Freight rates remain under severe pressure, and in several corridors the rates do not fully cover our variable costs. Rate improvements are imperative for the industry to create a sustainable environment."

Though it hasn't pulled ships, Japan's largest shipping company, NYK Line, says it will review its current medium-term management plan in January to look at the possibility of doing so. It has already announced a plan to cut fleet expansion plan by around 25%, or 50 to 60 ships, because of declines in the global shipping market. The original plan called for increasing the fleet to 1,000 ships in fiscal 2010 from 777 ships at the end of fiscal 2007. The revised calls for a total of 950 ships. Rival Japanese firm Mitsui OSK Lines is also revising its expansion goal from 1,000 ships to 950 in fiscal '09.

Singapore-based Neptune Orient Lines reports its worldwide container volumes dropped by 12% from Oct. 18-Nov. 14, while average revenue per container increased by 9 percent. The company says the decline reflects a slowdown in global demand, particularly in the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes where it has initiated capacity reductions since October.

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