"Despite the downside risks to the multi-family market, the local reliance on rental housing is expected to prevent significant revenue declines," says a report from Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services. "Additionally, vacancy is forecast to remain in check in popular Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods such as the Upper East Side and Upper West Side, the Village, downtown Brooklyn, and Park Slope as distressed renters take on roommates rather than move out of desirable locations."

In contrast, Marcus & Millichap cites neighborhoods including Long Island City, Midtown West, the Financial District and southeastern Harlem, "where deliveries will be elevated and the threat of shadow rentals persists." The report predicts a 130-basis point rise in the vacancy rate this year.

As part of its 2009 Global Real Estate Forecast, Grubb & Ellis notes that the housing slump and recession have produced "countervailing forces that will both help and hurt" the city's multifamily market this year. "Apartments are seeing some new renters who have lost their homes to foreclosure, while landlords are able to maintain existing renters who are waiting for prices and mortgage rates to fall further," the report states. "However, new graduates who can't find jobs are doubling up with a roommate or moving in with a relative to conserve cash."