Experts: Economy in Bottoming-Out Phase

NEW YORK CITY-Although titled “Preparing for the Recovery,” the cross-sector panel convened here Thursday morning made it clear that the timetable for an economic upturn was open-ended. “The next few years are going to feel tough,” warned Bruce McCain of Key Private Bank.

In some ways, the climate in the post-Wall Street meltdown marks the end of an era, said McCain, chief investment strategist at the Cleveland-based bank. It also follows the typical pattern of any economic cycle, which includes a topping-out, decline, bottoming-out and, eventually, a rally. The bottoming-out phase, he said, “seems to be where we are right now.” The question is how long it will take to “wash out the excesses and prepare for the next rally.”

McCain’s view that the economy is still looking for the bottom was shared from a real estate perspective by panelist Michael Newman. “What we’re seeing now is just the tip of the iceberg,” said Newman, president and CEO of Golub & Co., based in Chicago. The owner and developer observed that the challenges faced by retail tenants are now starting to spread into the office sector.