Well the predictions about post Christmas retail troubles are coming true with a slew of store downsizings and some more bankruptcies. No surprise here. We've been getting used to seeing the signs of our times--"For sale," "Condos with Great Views," and now that old favorite "Space for Lease."
The story here is that the downturn is hitting all stratas and noticeably upscale retailers too. On Manhattan's East Side, the TV satellite trucks sit on the corner outside Bernie Madhoff's apartment building waiting for a sighting. All along Second and Third Avenues those for lease signs have been increasing by the week in abandoned storefronts--restaurants, a Sushi place, a furniture store, a coffee shop, a pharmacy, a Circuit City, and on and on.
On Madison Avenue, one of the world's poshest shopping strips, the only action on a recent afternoon was at a shoe store near the Carlyle Hotel where a bunch of bystanders peered in through the window to watch the filming of a "Gossip Girl" episode. Otherwise, in shop after shop from Prada to Valentino, sentinel-perched salesmen stood expectantly waiting by doors for someone, anyone to venture in. Art galleries weren't doing any better. At least on Madison, the "for lease" signs are still few and far between. But you wonder whether the story line in the TV show isn't about that one last splurge before Dad breaks the news to Serena that she's going to public school next semester.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
