There's been a bit of generational divide in reaction to last week's blog about "gray and wrinkles"--early 1990s experience coming in handy as we get ready to confront the ugliness in institutional real estate and mortgage portfolios. The younger crowd shouldn't take offense just because they haven't had the opportunity to work through a cyclical low. And the older crowd has no reason to be smug--most went along for the ride in the last few years, as it turns out right off the cliff. I know of a few veterans who told me they were pulling back in '07 and warned others to do the same. But not many. And look at all the big "old" names facing defaults and losing properties with more to come. There are a few celebrated cases of Dads turning over the company reins and seeing their sons leverage up and overpay in '06 and '07,threatening carefully built family empires. But typically Dad wasn't saying no after sending his boy out to test his mettle. Out of control exuberance for making money (is that another way of saying greed?) has no age boundaries.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
