The State of the Market

NEWARK-Historical patterns indicate that New Jersey could be in for a long recession recovery, but there are opportunities–particularly in industrial–amid the downturn. That was the theme of Newark Regional Business Partnership’s Annual Real Estate Market Forecast held here on Thursday and sponsored by Sovereign Bank.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York senior economist and assistant vice president Rae D. Rosen kicked off the discussion with some figures and predictions about the current recession. Namely, that it began in January 2008 and is likely to outlast all other post-war recessions. According to Blue Chip figures, unemployment in the state could top 8%. The good news: look for less of a decline in the second half of this year.

“Pay attention to interest rate spreads,” said Rosen. “If they start to narrow it means that lending standards will also relax.” Unfortunately, jobs will likely be one of the last sectors to recover.