U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2020

"Like many other industries, trucking is experiencing a very difficult time during the current economic recession," said ATA President and CEO Bill Graves. "Yet, all signs point to a strong, vital, long-term future for our industry. Trucking exclusively serves 80 percent of all communities in the U.S. for the products and goods they receive. When the recovery begins, trucks will help lead the way."

The forecast looks at various modes of freight transportation, including truck (truckload, less-than-truckload, and private carriage), rail (carload and intermodal), domestic water, pipeline and domestic air. Though it projects volume and revenue growth for all modes, it says trucks' share of total tonnage will rise from 68.8% last year to 70.9% by 2020, while rail's overall share will slip slightly from 14.9% to 14.7%. Air cargo tonnage is estimated to grow from 14.5 million tons in 2008 to 22 million tons in 2020.

The report's basis for the overall growth in freight transport is a projected 3.5% annual average rate of growth in US manufacturing output during the second half of the forecast period. The main driver of that growth will be high-tech production, which is projected to exceed 15% per year from 2015-2020.