(Carl Cronan is editor of Real Estate Florida.)
GAINESVILLE, FL-The University of Florida's latest consumer confidence index moved higher in March, yet has been vacillating within the same eight-point range since last July. The index rose three points to 65 last month, led by perceptions of the national economy.
"Until there is a clear message that things are changing for the better, we expect consumer confidence to continue to move up and down as conflicting economic news trickles in," says Chris McCarty, director of survey research at the UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research. He notes in the index report that consumer confidence among Floridians seems to be countered lately by positive and negative news—home sales are rising, yet so is unemployment, for example.
Perceptions of US economic conditions over the next one to five years moved substantially higher in March, while those for personal finances were practically unchanged. Perceptions of whether now is a good time to buy big-ticket items also trended downward.
Florida's job situation is expected to worsen through the end of 2009 and possibly into next year, McCarty indicates. The Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation reports that statewide unemployment reached 9.4% in February, the highest level since April 1976, with some metropolitan areas exceeding 10%.
A slowdown in the drop of home prices new federal tax rebates for first-time homebuyers may help improve circumstances for some businesses around the state, though the construction industry could take longer to recover. "Consumers are likely to remain pessimistic and cautious about spending," he says.
The Florida Consumer Attitude Survey is conducted each month, with 470 respondents ages 18 or older recorded for March. The index is benchmarked to 1966.
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