According to the report, this year's decline follows what it calls a "dismal performance in 2008." However, it forecasts a 1.6% rise in port volumes for next year.

"Two-thousand and eight was a year full of unhappy surprises for the international trade industry," admits LAEDC chief economist Nancy Sidhu. "The industry saw employment fall by 1.1%, or 5,600 jobs, while industrial vacancy rates spiked up to 9.9% at year-end 2008 in the Riverside-San Bernardino area," which she describes as a former hotbed of new construction based on speculation that international trade would continue to boom. Unfortunately, she adds, international trade related employment is expected to fall by 9.3%, or 46,000 jobs, this year.

Among other key report findings:

  • The Los Angeles Customs District retained its number one US ranking in terms of trade value in '08, with an increase of 2.5% to $356.1 billion. However, New York/New Jersey, the number two district, saw a more robust gain of 9.3% to $353.6 billion;
  • The number of containers handled at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach last year totaled 14.3 million 20-foot-equivalent units (TEUs), a decline of 8.5%. By contrast, New York/New Jersey, the nation's second largest port, saw a drop of only 0.6% to 5.3 million TEUs;
  • Despite the decline in container traffic, the Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex maintained its number five ranking among the world's top ports;
  • China easily retained its position as the top trading partner for the Customs District, with total two-way trade value of $186.6 billion. Japan was a distant second with $59.3 billion;
  • The top export commodity out of the district was the category composed of computers, peripherals, machinery, appliances and parts, with a value of $17.3 billion;
  • The top import commodity was the category for electrical equipment, TVs and electronic parts, with a value of $58.2 billion.

Jack Kyser, founding economist for LAEDC's Kyser Center for Economic Research, calls the global economic downturn a huge challenge for the region, with the economies of four of the customs district's top trading partners expected to record declines. Environmental remediation presents further challenges, he adds, though he stresses that considerable progress has been made on this front. "The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach can claim to be the greenest ports in the nation," he states, noting that many solutions such as on-dock rail, use of low sulfur diesel and reliance on low-emission trucks and diesel locomotives are being closely watched by other ports.

In addition to the above, Sidhu and Kyser point out that both railroads that serve Southern California are increasing their track capacity, while the federal economic stimulus package should also help fund important highway and bridge projects in the area. At the same time, they concede the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach "have a lot of competitors nipping at their heels trying to get business," particularly Gulf Coast and East Coast ports looking to benefit from expansion of the Panama Canal to handle ships that currently have no choice but to dock on the West Coast. "International trade activity in Southern California will start growing again in 2010," predicts Kyser. "But we can no longer assume that growth will come automatically."

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