I want to see the green shoots, some hopeful signs that the economy is getting better. At this point the stock market is no better than a casino--nobody invests for the long-term anymore. It's all betting short-term. Recent run-ups don't express any enduring confidence, and the gains over the past few months seem more along the lines of profiting off overly beat up sectors like the forlorn financials.
The Main Street vibe isn't particularly good. In Las Vegas last week, the cab drivers said business isn't getting any better. Indeed, the casino action was inappropriately sedate. Plenty of people ambled along the strip but many were sight seeing not going to shows, playing the tables, or shopping. The free stuff like the Treasure Island pirate show and the Bellagio fountain music drew big crowds. At the Bellagio, room rates dropped under 200 bucks a night for a non-high roller with a little negotiation.
I got a call last week from somebody else losing a job at an architecture firm... And there was the story about someone embarrassed over having their credit cards refused in front of their daughter.
Gasoline prices are headed up again and we haven't hit the prime summer driving season just yet. For people out of work or trying to makes ends meet with less, higher driving costs make life that much tougher.
In Manhattan, the for rent signs in empty storefronts have proliferated since the beginning of spring. Another dress shop went belly-up around the corner last week.
The landscape design guy says he is surprisingly busy--people figure they won't be cashing out of their homes real soon so they might as well make the yards look better.
At least at the Mom and Pop IGA in the beach community, the shelves are getting stocked again after a spare winter when the line of credit was reduced. The next three months until Labor Day mean everything...
And while the economy hasn't emerged from its winter, summer has arrived, and there's nothing wrong with that.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
