I want to see the green shoots, some hopeful signs that the economy is getting better. At this point the stock market is no better than a casino–nobody invests for the long-term anymore. It's all betting short-term. Recent run-ups don't express any enduring confidence, and the gains over the past few months seem more along the lines of profiting off overly beat up sectors like the forlorn financials.

The Main Street vibe isn't particularly good. In Las Vegas last week, the cab drivers said business isn't getting any better. Indeed, the casino action was inappropriately sedate. Plenty of people ambled along the strip but many were sight seeing not going to shows, playing the tables, or shopping. The free stuff like the Treasure Island pirate show and the Bellagio fountain music drew big crowds. At the Bellagio, room rates dropped under 200 bucks a night for a non-high roller with a little negotiation.

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