"If you're in (commercial) real estate you are either depressed or have nothing to do."
"Every level of activity has stopped--debt is worth more than equity, there is no financing available, nobody is doing deals."
"It's dead."
"I've never seen anything like it."
Groups have been forming for months--many months--to do workouts and specialized asset management assignments--conservatively there's at least $100 billion in troubled real estate investments out there needing attention.
But despite all the TARP, stress tests, and Fed infusions banks and other institutions haven't been forced to write off and liquidate bad assets--everybody is still afraid to recognize market values because it might be just too much of a shock to the system... So we are in this period of languid calm where nothing can get done.
At least, transactions seem to be slowly picking up in the housing markets because banks are finally selling foreclosed properties. That's at least a sign of what's to come in the commercial world, but we're probably months away--at least through the summer and maybe not until next year.
It's frustrating, stultifying, dispiriting. Well, dead probably sums it up best.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
