The Sunday New York Times had a neat chart at the back of the Week in Review Section titled "Fall of the Mall." The headline was a bit misleading--the diagram was really about how much mall retailer sales have dropped over the past year (first quarter to first quarter).

In general, most stores are down across all categories. Department stores, in particular upscale retailers like Saks (down nearly 30%), take it on the chin. Nordstrom (-9.2%), Macy's (-5.9%) and JC Penney (-5.9%) suffer too. Even stalwart discounters--Walmart (-0.7%) and Costco (-2.8%) struggle, but not nearly as much. The cheapest places like The Family Dollar manage to stay in the black. Pharmacies like CVS (all those headache pills) and movie chains like Cinemark (inexpensive diversions) also profit.

Then there are some anomalies. Burger King ekes out a profit while Jack-in-the-Box plunges. Papa Johns and Dominos both lose, but Papa Johns not as much. Fast food aficionados are obviously discerning. The upscale downdraft really hit Starbucks--as noted before here, the era of $5 coffee has seen its day.

Of course, this all spells trouble for weaker regional shopping centers and power centers as retailers will concentrate store sites in stronger centers, leaving the weak to fail.

As for the headline, Fall of (Some) Malls would have been more appropriate.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.