Other highlights from the forecast:

The California economy will finally hit bottom in the 4th quarter of the year, and begin a slow, multi-year recovery. It will be 2013 before many key economic indicators such as unemployment return to healthy levels.
Vallejo was the first area in recession and will be the last to recover in the 2nd quarter of 2014. Merced and Sacramento are the next slowest to recover pre-recession jobs in the 4th quarter of 2013. The Oakland metropolitan area, comprising Alameda and Contra Costa counties, will achieve pre-recession employment in early 2013.
Non-farm payrolls are forecast to decline by a total of 1.02 million jobs statewide over the length of the two year recession.
Gross State Product has declined at a 6.5% annual rate in the first half of 2009.
Construction continues to lead job losses in percentage terms, declining another 15%--110,000--in 2009. By the time the recession, the construction sector will have shed over 400,000 jobs compared to 2006.
Manufacturing will lead the decline in 2009, shedding 135,000 jobs this year.
Healthcare is the only sector that will not contract in 2009. The 0.9%--13,000--gain in healthcare jobs is the slowest growth this decade.
Personal income declines 0.8% in 2009.
Housing starts hit bottom in 2009 at 36,000 units, more than 80% below the levels seen in 2004 and 2005. Housing starts will be back to 100,000 units in 2011, and exceed 150,000 by 2013.
New car and truck sales will be below $1.06 million in 2009 after exceeding $2 million for most of the decade. These sales will gradually increase as the economy recovers, reaching 1.46 million in 2010, and $1.73 million in 2011.
Retail sales will not recover their 2007 level until 2011.

Instant Insights /

Forecast: Pre-Recession Employment 3 Years Away

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