The rate at which economic growth picks up steam in 2011 and beyond depends largely on the federal government's success at managing $12.5 trillion worth of bailout and stimulus programs while keeping a lid on inflation, Pollert says. He calls this "a very challenging balancing act, even in the best of times."

However, Pollert cites a number of other factors that are likely to put the brakes on recovery for some time. Among these is consumer spending, whether for durable goods or housing. Both have been hit hard by declines in home prices and individual net worth. Putting a further chill on any consumer exuberance is the specter of a 10% unemployment rate in the first or second quarter of 2010.

Industrial production, Pollert says, has been "hammered" by declines in private business inventories and decreases in business investment over the past few quarters. While this correction augurs well for a recovery in industrial production, it's likely to be dampened by a continued lack of business spending and what Pollert calls "anemic exports" well into next year.