However the debate turns out, it´s clear that healthcare is big business... very big business. It´s such a big business and so many companies, doctors, and lawyers profit off it, that the government has to reduce overall growth in costs or it could take us all down into a further pit of national and personal debt. We hear about waste and inefficiencies, and if you´ve been to a doctor or in a hospital lately you´ll get many object lessons. Controlling costs translates into paring back what health insurers, doctors, attorneys, drug companies and others who feed at the health care trough take in. In particular, the President clearly has health insurers in his sights. These companies´ overhead approaches 20% (compared to under 5% for the oft-criticized government Medicare bureaucracy). Then we have the malpractice lawyers who lick their chops over large contingency fees. The malpractice bogeyman in turn takes us back to the insurance industry-doctors conduct all sorts of cover their backside tests, seek second and third opinions from various specialists, and take out large insurance policies to protect themselves from lawsuits. The insurers hire tons of private bureaucrats to find ways to lower their payments to doctors or find excuses not to cover policyholders-us. All these people who operate in the healthcare industry fill lots of office buildings. Leasing all that space costs money too.

If the President and Congress are successful in reining in spiking healthcare costs, it means the various lucrative healthcare profit centers, mentioned above, will either not be as profitable or much more efficient. Of course, that´s a mighty big "If." But if that happens some of these businesses could shrink and use less office space. And that´s why all the special interests fight so hard to protect their turf and profits-the health insurers in particular, who probably have the most to lose. Drug companies must feel the pinch too and maybe also their ad agencies who push out all those commercials touting expensive non-generic pills. Anybody have one of these companies as a tenant?

The graying baby boomer wave means that no matter what happens with legislation, we will need more doctors and hospitals. Older people just need more care. So if you are in the medical office niche, demand should steadily increase. The same goes, of course, for senior housing and nursing homes. A few less malpractice lawyers might not be a bad thing if they used their brainpower instead to become doctors or scientists.

Undoubtedly, any greater government involvement in healthcare will help out the Washington DC office market. Again the nation´s capital is proving to be the place to be invested when recession strikes. The federal government always expands... always.

And maybe, just maybe we´ll see our premiums and deductibles go down and not have to worry about losing coverage or going bankrupt if a health emergency ever confronts us. Those are issues our legislators never worry about since we taxpayers pay for their gold-plated plans.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.