However the debate turns out, it´s clear that healthcare is big business... very big business. It´s such a big business and so many companies, doctors, and lawyers profit off it, that the government has to reduce overall growth in costs or it could take us all down into a further pit of national and personal debt. We hear about waste and inefficiencies, and if you´ve been to a doctor or in a hospital lately you´ll get many object lessons. Controlling costs translates into paring back what health insurers, doctors, attorneys, drug companies and others who feed at the health care trough take in. In particular, the President clearly has health insurers in his sights. These companies´ overhead approaches 20% (compared to under 5% for the oft-criticized government Medicare bureaucracy). Then we have the malpractice lawyers who lick their chops over large contingency fees. The malpractice bogeyman in turn takes us back to the insurance industry-doctors conduct all sorts of cover their backside tests, seek second and third opinions from various specialists, and take out large insurance policies to protect themselves from lawsuits. The insurers hire tons of private bureaucrats to find ways to lower their payments to doctors or find excuses not to cover policyholders-us. All these people who operate in the healthcare industry fill lots of office buildings. Leasing all that space costs money too.
If the President and Congress are successful in reining in spiking healthcare costs, it means the various lucrative healthcare profit centers, mentioned above, will either not be as profitable or much more efficient. Of course, that´s a mighty big "If." But if that happens some of these businesses could shrink and use less office space. And that´s why all the special interests fight so hard to protect their turf and profits-the health insurers in particular, who probably have the most to lose. Drug companies must feel the pinch too and maybe also their ad agencies who push out all those commercials touting expensive non-generic pills. Anybody have one of these companies as a tenant?
The graying baby boomer wave means that no matter what happens with legislation, we will need more doctors and hospitals. Older people just need more care. So if you are in the medical office niche, demand should steadily increase. The same goes, of course, for senior housing and nursing homes. A few less malpractice lawyers might not be a bad thing if they used their brainpower instead to become doctors or scientists.
Undoubtedly, any greater government involvement in healthcare will help out the Washington DC office market. Again the nation´s capital is proving to be the place to be invested when recession strikes. The federal government always expands... always.
And maybe, just maybe we´ll see our premiums and deductibles go down and not have to worry about losing coverage or going bankrupt if a health emergency ever confronts us. Those are issues our legislators never worry about since we taxpayers pay for their gold-plated plans.
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