So the economic consensus is that the recession is over-we landed with a big thud after prolonged contraction and growth--albeit very anemic---has resumed. That´s good news, of course. The costly stimulus and financial industry bailouts indeed appear to be working to stanch what might have been even more prolonged and severe distress. But now we have to dig ourselves out of a huge hole of personal and government debt, while continuing to fight two wars. Unemployment is pegged to continue to rise for a while and the American worker confronts eroding compensation-wages and benefits aren´t what they used to be. How many people do you know make more today than two years ago and who is not paying more for their healthcare?

Our Wall Street friends try mightily to hang on to their bonus system in the face of public and government push back, while the average guy just hopes to hang onto his job and keep paying the home equity line and car loans. Is it any surprise that last week´s retail sales numbers were so bad-what the worst in six decades? Surviving car dealers are a loan bright spot-thanks to more government largesse, the relatively modest cash for clunkers program (hey it´s only a few billion dollars, not much in the scope of trillion dollar deficits).

In other words, the American consumer is in no condition to start spending again anytime soon and at some point the government has to rein in its spending and tax us more. Hopes for a strong back to school season at the malls are pipedreams. Christmas promises to be equally bleak. The economists´ more optimistic pronouncements haven´t put money back in anybody´s pockets or canceled out our collective debt loads.

People now need to confront the reality that credit-card fueled lifestyles aren´t suddenly coming back-our 30 year consumer binge is over. Part of the new reality is our general standard of living will decline, not markedly, but we won´t be able to afford as much as we used to and certainly not until we get our financial houses in order-a tall order for our government and many of us.

That´s why no one in the real estate world can get very excited about prospects for any quick rebound in tenant demand and rents. The market place will be in critical care for quite a while.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.