"It will take longer, as historically industrial real estate vacancies start falling about three or four quarters after GDP growth turns positive. That said, [AMB Property] believe this recovery will be a little quicker since vacancies and new supply were at relative healthy levels heading into the downturn."

"Our current snapshot of the market remains very challenging on the operating front with continued downward pressure on rents. This downward trend is moderating and we expect to hit bottom by year-end. The national vacancy rate has increased to 13% due to continued negative absorption of space. So, there is much work to be done including the back-filling of existing space before occupancy or rents can grow in a meaningful way. We believe we could be as far as a year way from that point."

"Longer-term, industrial real estate demand is on solid footing. Major drivers of global demand for industrial real estate in order of importance are: global trade, global GDP, industrial production, business inventories and consumption. Global trade is the most important number to watch as it explains roughly 80% of the historical variation in demand. Data shows that for every 1% of GDP growth, global trade grows by 3.5%, which translates into increased demand for industrial real estate in the US."

"According to current projections from the World Bank and Global Insight, global trade in 2010 is expected to grow by 4%-6%. Another important driver to watch is the rebuilding of inventories which fell to historic lows. In fact, they fell 13% compared to consumption which fell by only 2%. Business inventories have fallen faster than sales and at some point in the very near future you will see a rebuilding process that will directly benefit demand for industrial real estate."

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.