It´s a year since the Lehman Brothers collapse and we read in the New York Times over the weekend about investment banks securitizing bonds backing the proceeds from life insurance policies bought from elderly people looking to cash in benefits before they die. Since the CMBS and RMBS markets are dead, the Wall Street houses dream up another fee machine to boost profits and bonuses. This new product gets floated despite unresolved questions about the risk return issues involved, let alone the questionable idea of subverting what life insurance is supposed to provide.

And meanwhile let´s get back to CMBS-everyone in the real estate business is petrified about the consequences of hundreds of billions of dollars in CMBS loans maturing over the next five years. Many of these loans are poorly underwritten (especially later vintage), most at favorable terms and interest rates to borrowers relative to what they would be able to achieve even if markets were more liquid today. And given the broken CMBS engine and ongoing credit crisis, we all know CMBS refinancing is a huge issue which threatens to undermine any real estate market recovery, particularly since nearly everyone expects interest rates to increase over the next several years. Already underwater borrowers and many who are merely struggling with declining property revenues could be toast if they can´t rollover their loans.

But resolving the CMBS market mess is tomorrow´s business given the politicos and bankers are still trying to steady the financial system in the aftermath of last year´s meltdown highlighted by Lehman. You would think new regulation of securities markets must be part of the solution to bring confidence back to the broken system since bond buyers appropriately have near zero confidence in CMBS instruments. Any regulation might be a good first step since self regulation didn´t work, but so far absolutely no action has been taken. And you don´t get a good feeling when you read stories about these new Wall Street securitization forays and realize banking lobbyists pour money into the campaign war chests of congressmen and senators at record rates. It´s like the fix will be in and when markets recover-any regulation will be window dressing, Wall Street will soldier on, and we´ll be on our way to another fiasco.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.