The inevitable tidal wave of commercial loan busts begins to form--over the next six months more borrower reserves run out and owners come to terms with the harsh reality of rising vacancies and lowering rents. Why should they put good money after bad trying to keep up with debt service when the property is worth less than the loan and the markets won't recover any time soon to rescue them? It's time to bail.

Back in the early nineties, I practiced the spin game for a major institutional investor with a veritable bevy of headline grabbing stinker investments. When a high profile loan or equity deal went bust, we did what some of the big names are doing today--suggesting that our other investments made big returns and we're doing fine otherwise. Don't judge us by this one huge deal or that other huge deal that's going bust too. No judge us by our entire portfolio and no we won't open up the kimono to let you see just how well we're doing for our clients. That's between them and us--proprietary info, advisor-client, el priveeto.

Look if you're invested in commercial real estate today, made big bets late in the game, didn't get into cash two years ago--you're suffering big losses, more if you borrowed heavily (unless you borrowed so much that you didn't have much equity to lose and your lender is stuck). All the spin can't save you. We were geniuses on the way up, and dunderheads now. There's no way around it.

Oh watch out, here comes that wave, and there's no high ground for an escape.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.