While the latest forecast figure is still 17.7% below last year's total of 15.2 million TEUs, Jonathan Gold, NRF's vice president for supply chain and customs policy, says the improved projection suggests the recession may be coming to an end. "We're starting to see a pattern where import levels are still below last year, but they're not as far below as they were just a few months ago," he points out. "This matches up with other economic indicators."

The organization says the number was revised upward from previous forecasts to reflect higher projected imports for each of the remaining months of the year, as retailers anticipate that economic conditions will begin to ease. Nonetheless, the 12.5 million TEUs forecast would be the lowest since the 12.47 million TEUs recorded in '03.

The US ports surveyed by the report handled 1.1 million TEUs in July, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The figure was up 8% from June but down 17% from July '08. This marked the 25th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline. Volume for August was estimated at 1.13 million TEUs, also down 17% from last year, while September is forecast at 1.11 million TEUs, down 18%. The volume for October, traditionally the peak month of the year, is forecast at 1.14 million TEUs, down 17% from last October. November is forecast at 1.07 million TEUs, down 13%, and December is forecast at 1.04 million TEUs, down only 2% from '08.