While the latest forecast figure is still 17.7% below last year's total of 15.2 million TEUs, Jonathan Gold, NRF's vice president for supply chain and customs policy, says the improved projection suggests the recession may be coming to an end. "We're starting to see a pattern where import levels are still below last year, but they're not as far below as they were just a few months ago," he points out. "This matches up with other economic indicators."
The organization says the number was revised upward from previous forecasts to reflect higher projected imports for each of the remaining months of the year, as retailers anticipate that economic conditions will begin to ease. Nonetheless, the 12.5 million TEUs forecast would be the lowest since the 12.47 million TEUs recorded in '03.
The US ports surveyed by the report handled 1.1 million TEUs in July, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. The figure was up 8% from June but down 17% from July '08. This marked the 25th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline. Volume for August was estimated at 1.13 million TEUs, also down 17% from last year, while September is forecast at 1.11 million TEUs, down 18%. The volume for October, traditionally the peak month of the year, is forecast at 1.14 million TEUs, down 17% from last October. November is forecast at 1.07 million TEUs, down 13%, and December is forecast at 1.04 million TEUs, down only 2% from '08.
According to Gold, the minimal year-over-year decline for December is significant because it would mark the first single-digit decline of the year. Other actual and projected monthly declines ranged from 15% to 32%. The improvement, however, looks to be only temporary, as the organization forecasts an 18% year-over-year decline for January.
"Import container traffic is projected to be weak through January because of the slow pace of recovery from the recession and the slow period that follows the holiday season," says IHS Global Insight economist Paul Bingham. "We are seeing the annual cycle of month-to-month growth that will peak in October, but volume is still below last year's levels."
According to the NRF, August retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) saw their first gain in six months, rising 0.7% from July. At the same time, they were 4.3% down from August '08.
Ports covered by Port Tracker include Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Seattle; Tacoma; Houston, New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads, VA; Charleston, SC; and Savannah, GA. All are rated "low" for congestion, the same as last month. In addition to inbound container volume, Port Tracker looks at availability of trucks and railroad cars to move cargo out of the ports, labor conditions and other factors that affect cargo movement and congestion.
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