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Forecast Shows Import Cargo Volume Growing

Newest report from National Retail Federation ups annual projection based on July results and retailer expectations. But total will still be lowest since 2003.

By John McCloud | Updated on September 30, 2009

WASHINGTON, DC-The level of imports at the nation’s major retail container ports appears to be picking up. The newest monthly Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight ups the annual forecast for total import cargo volume to 12.5 million 20-foot container equivalent units (TEUs) for 2009 compared to 12.3 million TEUs forecast a month ago.

While the latest forecast figure is still 17.7% below last year’s total of 15.2 million TEUs, Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, says the improved projection suggests the recession may be coming to an end. “We’re starting to see a pattern where import levels are still below last year, but they’re not as far below as they were just a few months ago,” he points out. “This matches up with other economic indicators.”

The organization says the number was revised upward from previous forecasts to reflect higher projected imports for each of the remaining months of the year, as retailers anticipate that economic conditions will begin to ease. Nonetheless, the 12.5 million TEUs forecast would be the lowest since the 12.47 million TEUs recorded in ’03.

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