"The New Jersey market is in the midst of a dynamic shift as a result of the economic environment, and while opinions are plentiful as to the depth, duration and impact of the current economic downturn, one fact is crystal clear: this is not like any other change we have ever experienced during previous down cycles," CBRE senior vice president Kevin Welsh tells GlobeSt.com. "The bottom line is that the New Jersey commercial real estate marketplace is being re-segmented and redefined, with new rules and trends being established, creating what we have termed the new normal."
According to the white paper's findings, this new normal can be traced back to a structural shift in supply and demand dynamics and a change in tenant profiles, including a flight to quality and a slow migration of larger corporate tenants out of the state. More specifically, because New Jersey's economy is more diverse now than in past down cycles, there has been an influx in smaller, growth-oriented companies to the state, which has shifted the size of the space requirements demanded by this new tenant base.
As a result, 64% of all tenants in New Jersey occupy 10,000 square feet or less, while only 10% of all tenants occupy 50,000-plus square feet, which has created a discrepancy in availability rates for each tenant class. Consequently, there remains a large discrepancy in supply and demand ratios based on tenant size, which will continue to expand until the over-supply of older, larger footprint properties is addressed through adaptive re-use or other measures.
In addition, because of the depressed market, there has been an increase in the number of tenants that are looking to take advantage of lower rental rates for more modern work environments, or an increase in the flight to quality. According to CBRE, this trend towards state-of-the-art work environments, which include efficient space configurations, location and mass-transportation, technology, building systems, aesthetics and architecture, amenities and sustainable environments, at more affordable price points than in the past, has impacted availability rates as well as New Jersey's overall leasing market.
"Based on a comparison of the performance of modern properties and the overall market, there has been an annual increase of 145% from 2004 to the end of 2008, with modern properties clearly outperforming the market," Welsh says.
Despite the fact that leasing velocity at the end of last year was 51% below the average of the prior four years, with renewals accounting for 41% of all activity (as compared to historic renewal levels of 24%) and the continued divide between pricing expectations of tenants and owners, which is at a historic high, there are still pockets of opportunities available in this marketplace, finds CBRE. For example, urban centers such as New Brunswick, Newark, Hoboken and Jersey City will receive significant attention, as both business and government focus on further developing these mass transit-serviced urban centers and incentives such as the Urban Transit Hub Tax Credit continue to entice tenants to these areas.
Additionally, spin-off businesses in the areas of pharmaceuticals and finance, which will result from the continued consolidation of the major players in these sectors, will remain in New Jersey due to its attractive pricing and highly trained workforce, finds the white paper. And the health-care industry will also be a significant driver in the state, as expanded medical facilities and hubs in Princeton and Hackensack will continue to drive significant growth in the medical office building sector and supporting industries.
"Ultimately, finding opportunity for tenants and owners in the new normal will require more analysis and understanding of market nuances, as micro-market segmentation continues in seemingly comparable markets," says Welsh. "Our research shows that opportunities do in fact exist, and while some will remain focused on cost containment, others will see a unique window of opportunity to capitalize on the market transformation that the new normal is creating."
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