Prepare For a Flat Holiday

Most predictions we are seeing out there call for flat or slight negative drop in this year’s holiday sales. The National Retail Federation just came out with its prediction, a 1% decrease.The drop might not be as bad as last year, but we still think it’s extreme, considering the industry will still suffer a decline over the major 3.4% fall the NRF calculated after 2008′s numbers came in. The Wall Street Journal reports that two firms, Deloitte and Retail Forward, are predicting flat sales, while the International Council of Shopping Centers sees a 2% drop in same-store sales. And a BofA-Merrill Lynch conference call we recently reported on forecasts a 1% to 2% decline.Of course, discount chains are seen as the winners in this environment.Are these numbers in line with your predictions? Or do you see the picture improving, or getting a lot worse, depending on the extent of the recovery?