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Improved Trucking Data Promises Few Leasing Gains

Truck tonnage index and truck orders both rose in recent months. But analysts caution against overoptimism as retail sales continue on downward track.

By John McCloud | Updated on October 21, 2009

WASHINGTON, DC-Though recent trucking industry statistics show some improvement relative to preceding months, analysts do not anticipate a concomitant jump in freight volumes. As a result, owners of warehouse and distribution properties should at best expect only a very modest boost in leasing activity.

The Arlington, VA-based American Trucking Assocations’ (ATA) advanced seasonally adjusted for-hire truck tonnage index increased 2.1% in August compared to July but was down 7.5% compared to August 2008. Nonetheless ATA chief economist Bob Costello claims the increase, which followed a similar rise the preceding month, was a positive sign for the industry.

“The gains in tonnage during July and August reflect a growing economy and less of an overhang in inventories,” he says. Though Costello believes the overall trend in truck tonnage will continue upward in coming months, he expects the rate of increase to slow. “While I am optimistic that the worst is behind us, most economic indicators, including industrial output and household spending, suggest freight tonnage will exhibit moderate, and probably inconsistent, growth in the months ahead.”

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