The commercial mortgage delinquency rate has been rising at an accelerated rate ever since Lehman Brothers' collapse in September 2008 and the ensuing severe credit crunch and economic downturn. While more than double the commercial mortgage delinquency rate from the same year-earlier period, the 4.7% delinquency rate is still well below the 8% rate in the third quarter of 2001. However, given a weak economy, severely constrained credit availability and a high volume of commercial mortgages coming due during the next several years, Foresight Analytics principal Matthew Anderson calls the increasing delinquency rate "worrisome."

The delinquency rate for other commercial and industrial loans--loans to businesses typically unsecured and separate from commercial mortgage lending--rose 50 basis points in the third quarter to 4.2%. Anderson says the rate has been trending up by 50 basis points a quarter as the weak economy and reduced credit availability have put pressure on borrowers' finances.

"The lack of credit is most apparent in the C&I loan category," Anderson says. "We estimate a 6% decline in the volume of loans outstanding during Q3, following several quarters of contraction. The volume of loans outstanding has contracted by approximately 15% since peaking in Q3 2008."