(This story, in slightly different form, originally appeared in ALM’s Daily Business Review.)

MIAMI-When Gustaf Arnoldsson began courting potential investors to form a real estate investment fund, he felt like a high school student worried about arriving late to the dance. But the managing member of Miami Beach-based Stonemason Partners discovered in mid-2008 that he was alone on the dance floor. Few investors in South Florida expected the crisis ahead, he says.

“I started seeing the signs everywhere that the market was going to head down,” Arnoldsson says. “Most people buying real estate were turning it into a financial play rather than a real estate play. Like the tech bubble early this decade, people were buying based on potential future earnings.”

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