"Incredibly, this industry collapse is going to be worse than the early 1990s and the worse thing we've suffered since the Great Depression," with expected value declines of 40% to 50%, on average, from the peak hit in midyear 2007, stated Stephen Blank, ULI's senior resident fellow for real estate finance. Blank, along with PwC consultant Jonathan Miller, unveiled the findings of the joint study, "Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010," at the ULI conference here yesterday.

On the investment front, those polled believe the coming year will be the worst time for property sellers in the survey's 31-year history, but that's good news for buyers. Buying and sales activity may increase as borrowers and lenders feel increasingly pinched by the economic conditions.

The "black hole" for many buyers, said Blank, will continue to be where financing will come from to get deals done. "Unquestionably, 2010 and 2011 are going to set the stage for a monumental timing play for investors who've got capital and want to buy properties at a cyclical low point," he added.

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.