I´ve been up in Canada over the past week, and it´s obvious Americans could learn a few things from our neighbors to the north. Canada´s economy appears to be (really) stabilizing after a comparatively mild downturn and commercial real estate markets should follow suit-value declines have been in the 10-20% range in contrast to losses in the U.S. headed on average well above 40%. Housing markets in Canada suffered mild buffeting, but prices in prime neighborhoods have more than held their own, and appear to be increasing again. Foreclosures, defaults, and dislocation aren´t part of the local landscape anywhere from coast to coast.

Vancouver ranks as the top North American commercial property market after Washington D.C. on the Emerging Trends survey. Toronto suffers from increasing office vacancy-a result of new development in the downtown core. But deep-pocket institutional owners are well positioned to ride out any market softness. This global gateway has also grown into North America´s largest condo market, as more people look to settle in and around its attractive urban core. Hot growth Calgary suffers from overbuilding and hopes natural gas prices ratchet up to bail it out. Elsewhere the real estate scene shows few signs of any distress. On the property sector front, the U.S. automaker morass drags down the Southern Ontario industrial belt and hotels suffer from markedly reduced business and tourist travel from the U.S.

In general, Canadian real estate investors appear buoyant next to depressed U.S. counterparts. "It´s really a tale of two cities or shall we say countries," a major Toronto developer told me. "We´re sleeping much better at night." So what´s put Canada in a better position? Abundant natural resources (oil, gas, water) certainly help. But Canada and its citizens have also been much more fiscally conservative and responsible. The country paid down its debts after a severe early 1990s recession through a combination of spending cuts and higher taxes. Banks and financial institutions are highly regulated-capital reserve requirements and other mandates kept lenders and investors out of exotic mortgages, overleveraging situations, and hair brained securitization structures. Homebuyers typically must put down at least 30% equity to get mortgages. And consumers never got out of control either-people live more within their means without resorting as much to plastic.

Canadians react with surprise when they hear that their socialized health care system is held up as something that Americans should want to avoid. It´s not perfect, but people get good care, and no one goes without seeing doctors or getting prescriptions.

In the meantime, any Canadian worries focus back on the U.S. If our economy stays down, their recovery will be stanched and the falling U.S. dollar makes the Loonie more expensive and hurts their U.S. exports. If more U.S. retailers go bankrupt after Christmas, stores could go dark weakening shopping centers. And Canada needs more U.S. travel to its big city hotels and resorts.

But your average Canadian can rest easy these days... unless that is he or she invested in the U.S.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.