I´ve been up in Canada over the past week, and it´s obvious Americans could learn a few things from our neighbors to the north. Canada´s economy appears to be (really) stabilizing after a comparatively mild downturn and commercial real estate markets should follow suit-value declines have been in the 10-20% range in contrast to losses in the U.S. headed on average well above 40%. Housing markets in Canada suffered mild buffeting, but prices in prime neighborhoods have more than held their own, and appear to be increasing again. Foreclosures, defaults, and dislocation aren´t part of the local landscape anywhere from coast to coast.
Vancouver ranks as the top North American commercial property market after Washington D.C. on the Emerging Trends survey. Toronto suffers from increasing office vacancy-a result of new development in the downtown core. But deep-pocket institutional owners are well positioned to ride out any market softness. This global gateway has also grown into North America´s largest condo market, as more people look to settle in and around its attractive urban core. Hot growth Calgary suffers from overbuilding and hopes natural gas prices ratchet up to bail it out. Elsewhere the real estate scene shows few signs of any distress. On the property sector front, the U.S. automaker morass drags down the Southern Ontario industrial belt and hotels suffer from markedly reduced business and tourist travel from the U.S.
In general, Canadian real estate investors appear buoyant next to depressed U.S. counterparts. "It´s really a tale of two cities or shall we say countries," a major Toronto developer told me. "We´re sleeping much better at night." So what´s put Canada in a better position? Abundant natural resources (oil, gas, water) certainly help. But Canada and its citizens have also been much more fiscally conservative and responsible. The country paid down its debts after a severe early 1990s recession through a combination of spending cuts and higher taxes. Banks and financial institutions are highly regulated-capital reserve requirements and other mandates kept lenders and investors out of exotic mortgages, overleveraging situations, and hair brained securitization structures. Homebuyers typically must put down at least 30% equity to get mortgages. And consumers never got out of control either-people live more within their means without resorting as much to plastic.
Canadians react with surprise when they hear that their socialized health care system is held up as something that Americans should want to avoid. It´s not perfect, but people get good care, and no one goes without seeing doctors or getting prescriptions.
In the meantime, any Canadian worries focus back on the U.S. If our economy stays down, their recovery will be stanched and the falling U.S. dollar makes the Loonie more expensive and hurts their U.S. exports. If more U.S. retailers go bankrupt after Christmas, stores could go dark weakening shopping centers. And Canada needs more U.S. travel to its big city hotels and resorts.
But your average Canadian can rest easy these days... unless that is he or she invested in the U.S.
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.